Mr. Royal returns for the first in a series of NFL previews. ALMOST football season, people.
I know, dude. It’s been rough out there.
Almost immediately after a terribly anticlimactic Super Bowl, you had to watch the US Hockey team lose to Canada after TJ Oshie single-handedly beat Putin’s boys and gave you hope to believe this was the year we were snagging the gold over our overly-polite neighbors to the North.
You got super-excited for Spring Training. So many exciting storylines! Then Hiroki Kuroda shit the bed, CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova suffered season-ending injuries, Michael Pineda got bitch-slapped by karma after embarassingly using pine tar and wound up being out most of the season with an injury, and Masahiro Tanaka TOTALLY GOT AN ELBOW INJURY BUT IT’S DEFINITELY DEFINITELY DEFINITELY NOT GONNA NEED TOMMY JOHN. Definitely not gonna need Tommy John’s. No seriously, guys, it’s an elbow injury that looks exactly like the kind of injury that leads to you needing Tommy John’s, but he’s not gonna need Tommy John’s. He’ll be back in August and be pitching just fine…
Look dude, if I keep saying that it will happen.
You had to suffer through soccer hardos at your job getting you all riled up to watch the USMNT go 1-2-1 at the World Cup.
You had to suffer through another Aaron Hernandez murder arraignment.
You thought, “WOW! Transformers couldn’t possibly get any better and then they go and add MARKY MARK!?” And then you spent 25$ to go see it in IMAX 3D (small popcorn and drink included) and… yea!
You and your co-blogger got super-excited about the new Godzilla movie and it was… yea.
You had to suffer through endless Michael Sam coverage of him doing absolutely nothing.
You had to suffer through turning on SportsCenter and hearing Chris Broussard and Brian Windhorst speculate for hours as to the possible destinations of Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony every day for two weeks without anything legitimate to report. You had to suffer through listening to Steven A. Smith tell you that he was 95% sure they were teaming up together in Miami, and then yell at Skip Bayless about how he knew Lebron was going to go to Cleveland all along.
You’ve had to suffer through 3 Major Championships without real Tiger Woods and no real drama going in to the final nine holes. (Rory won wire to wire, Kaymer wasn’t even within shouting distance of an opponent, and no one was beating Bubba at Augusta this year).
The point is, this time that I call the “Dark Period of Sports” during the months of June, July, and August, are especially rough. But rest assured, Sept 4th will soon be upon us. It’s time for me to start jogging your memory and reminding you of all the storylines that entice you to pay a bazillion dollars for DirecTV and Sunday Ticket every year.
I’ll be covering a preview of each division, picking the winners, and do a final preview blog where I pick playoff winners waaaaaaaay too early. That’s nine blogs (I think that math is correct?) about football before September 4th. Here we go. Let’s start with the division that used to be even easier to call.
AFC East
Here are the odds to win the division according to Las Vegas Hotel and Casino’s SuperBook:
Pats: 4:13
Dolphins: 9:2
Jets: 8:1
Bills: 10:1
**Remember in sports betting, odds are calculated based on payout for a wager. This is NOT probability. So in the case of the Pats, if we bet $13 that they would win the division, we would profit only $4; whereas a $1 bet that the Bills would win the division would result in a $10 profit.
Side Note: My unusual success in picking games against the spread in last year’s playoffs has tempted me to actually bet real money on games this year. Keep it locked to thefillerbuster.com to slowly watch me turn into a degenerate gambler.
My picks:
4th Place: The Miami Dolphins (6-10) (Divisional record: 2-4)
I don’t think the Dolphins are a bad team, I think I’m just unusually high on the rest of this division. I think there’s a really good chance they start 0-3 (Patriots, at Bills, Chiefs) and get their first win at Oakland right before their early BYE. Overall, the Dolphins rank 12th in Strength of Schedule.
A Quick Note on Strength of Schedule: For me, Preseason strength of schedules are an inexact metric of measuring how tough a schedule is, because after Week 1, you can almost throw that thing out the window. SoS in the preseason is based on 2013; therefore, their “toughness” of schedule is based solely on the assumption that 2014 plays out like 2013.
People will tell you that this season for the ‘Phins hinges on Ryan Tannehill and whether or not he truly breaks out and has the year we all think he is capable of having. I’m going a bit of a different route here and say that Tannehill can play well and that offense can still struggle unless Mike Wallace produces the way we all think he can. I don’t think Brian Hartline is a 1000+ yard receiving guy (although he broke that mark last year), and the Dolphins will lean heavily on Wallace being their big-play guy (although I’m excited to see Jarvis Landry in action).
Also on the offensive side of the ball, let’s factor in the face that they lost half their starting O-line (oh yeah… the Incognito thing) and the lack of a big-time TE. Charles Clay is a nice piece but I think he also benefits from being a big target on an offense without a ton of weapons. And finally, who is Lamar Miller, really? Is he this year’s young breakout guy or just that dude you picked up on the waiver wire when Doug Martin when your RB2 pulled a hammy last year? And while GM Dennis Hickey recently called Knowshon Moreno a “three-down back,” a) Will they use him like one? and b) Why did they only give him a one-year deal?
I think the Dolphins greatest strength is their secondary (anchored on both sides with Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan). I like Cameron Wake and Randy Starks on that D-Line and like the rest of this division, I think they have an above-average defense. I just think losing 4/6 games in a physical, very competitive division is going to be hard to overcome.
UPDATE: Just found out Dolphins’ Center Mike Pouncey is out for the first eight weeks of the season. So… tack that on to the part about their decimated O-line
3rd Place: Buffalo Bills (7-9) Divisional Record (2-4)
I wrestled with giving Miami the 7-9 record and the third place spot but ultimately gave it to the Bills for a few scheduling reasons. The Bills rank 14th in overall strength of schedule, but at .500 it just means they have an average schedule. Not particularly difficult, not exactly a cakewalk either, it’s just right. I think they’re good enough to split games with Miami and New York but I think that secondary versus Brady still loses to New England twice, although it wouldn’t shock me to see them win their home game in Week 6 (they almost beat New England Week 1 at home last year). I think the Bills are good enough to beat Houston, Minnesota, Detroit, Cleveland and Oakland as well, giving them those 7 wins.
Buffalo has gone 6-10 in each of their last two seasons. Here’s why I think they’re one game better this year:
As asinine as it was to draft EJ Manuel in the middle of the first round last year when they could’ve waited til the second, I think EJ Manuel had a nice Josh Freeman-esque first year. He’s clearly got the arm to make some big time throws and his large, physical body combined with the athleticism to run a little is certainly an added bonus. I think Manuel will take a step forward this year and demonstrate significant improvement in decision-making and overall comfort with his offense if he can stay healthy and gain some consistency week to week. I still like Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller splitting carries in that backfield. He has a few really nice targets to throw to as well. Chandler is a huge, physical presence in the middle, Robert Woods will make a leap of his own in his second year, and we all know what Sammy Watkins can do. I don’t think they will miss Stevie Johnson as much as a lot of people think.
Defensively, the Bills will suffer from a lack of Jairus Byrd in their secondary. Huge loss. If he stays healthy, I think Leodis McKelvin will step up to the plate and become that consistent first-round corner the Bills drafted him to be and be more than just a quality pass/kick returner. Brandon Spikes and Keith Rivers anchor an above-average linebacking corps. The Bills greatest strength is their defensive line that features Mario Williams on one end and Marcell Dareus on the other. But again with Dareus there are question marks. This past week the Bills placed Dareus on the non-football related injury list after he failed his conditioning test and he’s been arrested a couple times in the off-season. But still, Dareus is a Pro-Bowler and I think he will put it together and be ready Week 1.
Second Place: New York Jets (Overall record: 9-7) (Divisional record: 3-3)
Yes, I took a look at the Jets schedule to get to 9-7. Yes, I did the same analysis on both sides of the ball that I did on the previous two teams I talked about. But I’m not going to bore you with all that. Long story short, they’re a terrific Rex Ryan defense, we all know it, but offensively they have always struggled. Analysis complete.
Instead, what I want to talk to you about is the latest chapter of the never-ending, always-entertaining, drama-filled, future for 30 for 30 film entitled, The Michael Vick Project.
“What if I told you… the most exciting rusher of 21st century football was actually a quarterback?”
Now, I’ve been President and CEO of the “Michael Vick Will Never Start in a Super Bowl Game” club for almost a decade now (although he did come close in ’05 before getting stomped by McNabb’s Eagles in the NFC Championship Game).
Side Note: Can you believe that the Patriots’ win over that Eagles team in ’05 was the last time they won a Super Bowl? That was almost ten years ago… Somehow that’s just weird to me.
Here’s what’s so funny about the Jets’ QB situation. I actually almost believed Vick for a second when he said he knew Geno Smith would be the starting quarterback next year. I even believed Rex when he told us the same thing a few months ago. But then Rex followed up with “I think you let this competition play out,” and Vick followed up with “But this situation, it’s different, it’s kind of unique. Even though it’s not an open competition, we’re both competing every day,” in reference to how this QB competition compared to the one he had in Philly with Nick Foles last offseason.
You remember. The QB competition he won last year beating out Foles and Matt Barkley for the Eagles’ job.
In case you’ve forgotten, for all his flaws, Vick is – at his very core – extremely competitive. He can tell himself and the media all he wants that he knows Geno is the starter, but when he lays his head down on his pillow at night, we all know he thinks he can win that job. And personally, I think you’re crazy if you think Geno Smith is a better quarterback than Michael Vick right now.
But let’s say I’m wrong. Let’s say Geno Smith is a better quarterback than Michael Vick (that’s even hard to type). Let’s say we believe Rex Ryan when he says that “Geno is head and shoulders above where he was last year.” The one thing we know is that Rex doesn’t really seem to care what people think, he’s not super-concerned about his job, and he does what he thinks is best to win (i.e. not giving in to Tebow mania). So if Geno really is “head and shoulders” better, then the Jets will be a 9-7 football team. If he isn’t, then Vick will be the starter and the Jets will definitely be a 9-7 football team.
Because even as President of the “Michael Vick Will Never Start in a Super Bowl Game” club, there is one thing that is absolutely clear about Vick: He is the most exciting player in the NFL when he’s in that zone. You know the zone I’m talking about.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/547565-2010-nfl-mvp-will-mike-vick-or-tom-brady-take-home-the-award
THAT 2010 MVP candidate zone. You know when he’s healthy and got nothing to lose so he just scrambles his way to 500+ total yards until they win the game, zone. That, “yea I know Kolb/Foles is injured, but now we have to deal with Vick,” feeling he evokes.
Based on history, Michael Vick can be the most frustrating waste of talent to watch hike a football, or the most dynamic and electrifying game-changer in the NFL depending on – well, depending on nothing. There really seems to be no pattern to it. He’s come off injury and been great, he’s come off injury and been terrible. He’s come off the bench and been great, he’s come off the bench and been terrible. Because of recent terribleness and the chip on his shoulder, I think he starts for the Jets by Week 8, and the Jets make the playoffs.
1st Place: New England Patriots (Regular Season: 12-4) (Divisional: 5-1)
Let’s start with a friendly reminder that last year Tom Brady passed his way to a 12-4 record and the AFC Championship for his team by throwing to a Gronk-less, Amendola-less receiving corps full of guys you’ve never ever ever heard of before outside of Julian Edelman (Oh you’d heard of Kenbrel Thompkins??? I don’t believe you, Boston guy).
Side Note: In games that the Patriots lost last year, they only lost by margins of three, four (twice), and seven.
The Patriots are so good that you start assessing their schedule by just picking out the few games that you think they might lose (@ KC, vs. Denver, @ NYJ) and tack on a loss for a fluke game against a reasonable opponent (like the Cincy loss last year). I can see them maybe dropping a game at Green Bay or maybe even a late-season game against the Chargers when Rivers is desperately throwing bombs to Keenan Allen to keep playoff hopes alive and Brady and the boys are in cruise control.
Breaking down the roster is almost stupid. You know what you’re getting with the Pats: An underrated O-line, Brady, Belichick, 6 to 10 games of healthy Gronk, a defense that somehow outplays its talent level, and this year… this year, my man, Darrelle Revis. After watching the Pats succeed with jack squat outside of Tom Brady last year (even Wilfork was injured!), it’s not even about the talent level anymore. It’s about the system… and the hoodie.